{"id":6892,"date":"2013-08-01T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2013-08-01T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insulation.org\/io\/articles\/insulation-and-climate-change\/"},"modified":"2017-06-09T20:25:45","modified_gmt":"2017-06-09T20:25:45","slug":"insulation-and-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"articles","link":"https:\/\/insulation.org\/io\/articles\/insulation-and-climate-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Insulation and Climate Change"},"content":{"rendered":"

Climate change
\nprovides opportunities and challenges for the insulation industry.
\nHigh-performance insulation systems are vital for energy efficiency and
\nreductions in the greenhouse gases (GHGs) that contribute to climate change.
\nThe consequences of climate change, such as heat waves, heavy precipitation,
\nhigh winds, flooding, and wildfires threaten the integrity and durability of
\ninsulation systems. This article calls attention to the authoritative
\ninformation on climate change and suggests how the insulation industry can
\ncontribute to the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change effects.<\/span><\/p>\n

Climate, Weather, and Extreme Events<\/font><\/b><\/p>\n

Weather,
\nclimate, and extreme events are key considerations in insulation systems’
\ndesign and practice. Weather is defined as “the state of the atmosphere with
\nrespect to wind, temperature, cloudiness, moisture, pressure, etc.” (NWS,
\n2013). Weather generally refers to short-term variations on the order of
\nminutes to about 15 days (NSIDC, 2012). Climate, on the other hand, “is usually
\ndefined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical
\ndescription in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a
\nperiod of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years” (IPCC,
\n2007). An extreme event is a weather event that is rare at a particular place
\nand time of year (IPCC, 2007). For instance, for Washington Reagan National
\nAirport on June 25 (Washington Post; June 26, 2013): the normal high
\ntemperature is 87\u00b0F (climate), the high on June 25, 2013 was 93\u00b0F (weather),
\nand the record high was 100\u00b0F in 1997 (extreme event).<\/span><\/p>\n

Scientists have reached a
\nconsensus that weather, climate, and extreme events of the past generally will
\nnot be representative of those of the future. Moreover, climate science is not
\nable to precisely forecast the climate, weather, and extreme events of future
\ndecades. This uncertainty poses a challenge to standards that are based on the
\nassumption that the climate, weather, and extreme events observed in the past
\nwill characterize those of the future. <\/p>\n

A number of authoritative
\nsources (available free online) summarize the science on weather, climate, and
\nextreme events, and the links between science and decision making.<\/p>\n

The U.S. Global Change Research
\nProgram (USGCRP) involves 13 federal agencies and is headed by the White House
\nOffice of Science and Technology Policy. USGCRP is preparing a National Climate
\nAssessment (NCA), which will be issued in 2014; a draft has been available
\nsince January 2013 (NCA, 2013). The draft of the NCA was prepared by the
\nNational Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee with over 240
\ncontributors and authors including climate and social scientists as well as
\nengineers. It has chapters on urban systems, infrastructure and vulnerability,
\nU.S. regions, mitigation, and adaptation. <\/p>\n

Figure 2, U.S. Average
\nTemperature Projections, taken from the draft NCA, illustrates both the
\npotential significance of climate change for insulation systems and why climate
\nscience cannot now quantitatively forecast future climate, weather, and extreme
\nevents.<\/p>\n

The solid line for the 20th<\/sup> century shows an increasing trend,
\namounting to about 2\u00b0F for the century, with the observed variations from the
\ntrend as large as 2\u00b0F. The projections for the 21st<\/sup> century are
\nderived from global climate models that consider a variety of scenarios for
\neconomic development and control of GHG emissions (Moss et al., 2010). The
\nlowest curve is based on GHG concentrations peaking at 490 ppm carbon dioxide
\n(CO2<\/sub>) equivalent and then declining; it leads to an additional 2\u00b0F
\nincrease in U.S. average temperature in the 21st<\/sup> century. The
\nhighest curve is based on emissions continuing to produce GHG concentration of
\n1,370 CO2<\/sub> equivalent in 2100; it leads to an additional 9\u00b0F
\nincrease. The historical trend of atmospheric CO2<\/sub> is shown in Figure
\n3. The CO2<\/sub> data (red curve), measured as the mole fraction in dry
\nair from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, constitute the longest record of
\ndirect measurements of CO2<\/sub> in the atmosphere. The black curve represents
\nthe seasonally corrected data.<\/span> <\/p>\n

Greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st<\/sup> century will depend upon
\nworldwide actions, private and public behavior, and policy decisions and
\nactions, which are unpredictable, but can be represented by scenarios such as those
\nused in preparing Figure 2.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading
\ninternational body for the assessment of climate change. It was established by
\nthe United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological
\nOrganization (WMO) in 1988 to provide the world with a clear scientific view on
\nthe current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential
\nenvironmental and socio-economic impacts. The Physical Science Basis (IPCC,
\n2007) describes observational and modeling bases for projections of climate
\nchange effects; an updated version is due for publication in the fall of 2013.
\nFigure 4, excerpted from Table 3-1 of “Special Report on Managing the Risks of
\nExtreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation” (IPCC, 2012)
\nprovides guidance to future weather and extreme events that will affect
\ninsulation systems.<\/span><\/p>\n

The U.S. National Academies of
\nScience, Engineering, and Medicine have also studied climate change science,
\nmitigation, and adaptation (National Academies, 2011).<\/p>\n

What Can the Insulation Industry Do?<\/font><\/b><\/p>\n

Insulation
\nsystems have always been strong contributors to energy efficiency. The
\ncombustion of fossil fuels is responsible for over 80% of U.S. GHG emissions
\n(National Academies, 2011). If you consider U.S. energy use by sector,
\nbuildings use 41%, industry uses 31%, and transportation uses 28%—thus, there
\nare significant opportunities for high-performance insulation systems to reduce
\nenergy use.<\/span><\/p>\n

Engineers and scientists from
\nthe insulation industry can join in research with climate and weather
\nscientists to develop integrated models for climate, weather, and extreme
\nevents (National Academies, 2012), which, combined with observations, can give
\nprobabilistic guidance for the conditions for which insulation systems should
\nbe designed, constructed, operated, and maintained.<\/p>\n

Before such research is
\nconducted and its results incorporated in standards (a process that may take a
\ndecade or more), what can the industry do? <\/p>\n

There is useful guidance in the
\nconcept “long life, loose fit, low energy” expressed by Alex Gordon, president
\nof the Royal Institute of British Architects (Gordon, 1972):<\/p>\n