Three Sneaky Economic Issues to Keep an Eye On

To be honest, the issues described in this article are not actually sneaky as much as they are issues that get lost in the shuffle when there are other big concerns surfacing. We are bombarded with assessments of inflation, employment, interest rates, tariffs and trade, and so on. The conversation regarding artificial intelligence (AI) is constant and intense, and one can be forgiven for being confused by what AI can and can’t do. The less headline worthy subjects covered here may yet prove more significant than those that are dominating the news cycle.

Lost Skills
At the top of the list is the issue of lost skills. We are all familiar with the workforce shortage that has been discussed for more than a decade. We know that by 2030 we face a demographic meltdown, as every single Boomer will be eligible for retirement. We also know that we lack trained people to replace them. But there is another element we don’t pay enough attention to: Those coming out of the trade schools and other institutions may be well versed in modern technology, but they don’t have experience with the old tech that still dominates most businesses. That training has to come from the people who have been dealing with these machines for years, yet too often they retire before passing on that knowledge. The vast majority of manufacturers have been accumulating machinery for decades, and most of that equipment is still in daily use. The experienced operators know their quirks by now and know what kind of adjustments have to be made. In the not-so-distant past, the “old heads” would pass along that information to new workers by example. But companies stopped hiring people to wait in the wings and gather knowledge. Now, the experienced worker retires, and the new worker is hired to replace them. There is no opportunity to share that knowledge, and the result is months of expensive trial and error.

Shrinkflation
A second sneaky issue is “shrinkflation.” We are all familiar with the higher prices that have come with inflation of around 2.7% (officially). The issue is that inflation should be somewhat higher by now, given all the tariff and trade turmoil, higher wages, and other traditional inflation drivers. The fact is there are many ways to cope with inflation if one is a producer. One can simply hike prices to reflect the higher costs of inputs—but that risks losing consumers that can no longer afford the product or service. The most common alternative strategy is “shrinkflation.” The price may stay the same, but the offering is smaller—often significantly so. The service is reduced so that there is a longer wait. Notice how slow “fast food” has become. A request for a service call now takes far longer, as staffs have been reduced as costs of hiring have gone up. In many cases people notice the reduced size, but there is little they can do about it; and when it comes to service, it is harder to point out. The consumer is deeply affected by this pattern, routinely getting less for their money. That erodes the relationship between producer and consumer. If the expectation was for a product of the same size and quality as before, and that expectation is not met, there will be strong motivation to shift to a different supplier.

Regulation
A third sneaky issue is one that has been around for a long time. Regulation has long been controversial—and for a variety of reasons. Milton Friedman was quoted as asserting that policies should be judged by their outcomes, rather than their intent. Many “good” ideas turn out to be problematic when they encounter the real world. They contradict one another as they are promulgated by different agencies with differing mandates. One problem occupies the regulator’s attention, and they pay little attention to what happens as a result of their change. It is estimated that there are over 1 million regulations at the federal level alone, and 4,500 more are issued every year. Keeping up with them easily becomes a full-time job. Lately there has been the additional stress of tariffs. More than 500 executive orders have been issued since the start of 2025. This is more than in any year in the last 3 decades. These also have changed quickly and often, and that makes it even harder to keep track of what has been affected and what hasn’t. Customs officials have admitted publicly that they no longer know what a company’s financial obligations are.
In truth, nobody wants to live in a world with no regulation at all. There are unscrupulous people, and there are ample reasons to seek protection for consumers, workers, the environment, etc. That said, there is a solid argument to be made regarding overregulation. In the vast majority of cases, the original rule or regulation made sense in the context of the original problem. It is when that rule or regulation conflicts with other goals and aims that difficulty arises. As an example, lately there have been calls to cap the interest rates set on credit cards at 10%. Given that everybody has long complained about how high these rates have been, it seems a good idea. What could go wrong? The reality is that credit card issuers are well aware that there are millions of defaults every year. The rate of serious delinquencies (90 days delinquent at least) is close to 8%. There was nearly $60 billion in overdue debt in 2024 alone. Credit card issuers absorb that loss by having higher rates that allow them to cover the delinquencies. If the rate is capped, they will respond with a much more cautious approach to issuing credit cards. Merchants have demanded that cards be widely available; but if rates are capped, those with weaker credit will be denied access. These people will be forced to less savory options, such as payday loans and outright loan sharks. The bottom line is that capping rates is a “good” idea in some respects, but it creates new problems: the infamous law of unintended consequences.
Keep in Mind
The attention this year will be focused on the usual subjects—inflation, employment, interest rates, taxation, trade, and so on. It is important to avoid losing sight of less common concerns.